Crypto Market Macro Research Report: Turning Point Approaches, Market Set to Restructure Pricing Logic

I. Introduction

In the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market transitioned from a high-temperature market to a short-term adjustment phase. Although various sectors continue to rotate and guide market sentiment, the effects of macroeconomic pressures are gradually becoming evident. The global trade situation is turbulent, U.S. economic data is volatile, and the ongoing speculation about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has led the market into a significant turning point. At the same time, there have been new changes on the policy front: certain political figures have expressed positive stances on cryptocurrencies, sparking investors' expectations that Bitcoin could become a national strategic reserve asset. The current market is still in a mid-term adjustment phase, but structural opportunities are emerging, and significant changes in pricing benchmarks are occurring.

2. Macroeconomic Variables: Old Logic Disintegrates, New Anchors Not Established

In May 2025, the crypto market is in a critical period of macro logical reconstruction. The traditional pricing framework is rapidly collapsing, while new valuation anchors have yet to be established, leaving the market in a vague and anxious macro environment. From economic data and central bank policy orientations to marginal changes in global geopolitics and trade relations, all are influencing the behavior patterns of the entire crypto market in a new order amidst instability.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is transitioning from "data dependence" to a new phase of "political and stagflation pressure game." Recent inflation data shows that while inflationary pressures in the United States have eased, overall stickiness remains, especially with high rigidity in service prices. This, intertwined with structural shortages in the labor market, makes it difficult for inflation to decline rapidly. Although the unemployment rate has seen a marginal increase, it has not yet triggered the lower limit for a policy reversal, leading to a delay in market expectations for interest rate cuts. While the Fed Chair does not rule out the possibility of rate cuts within the year in public statements, he emphasizes a cautious wait-and-see approach and adherence to long-term inflation targets, making the vision of liquidity easing seem more distant.

This uncertain macro environment directly affects the pricing foundation of crypto assets. Over the past three years, crypto assets enjoyed valuation premiums in the context of zero interest rates and widespread liquidity easing, but now, in the latter half of the cycle with interest rates at high levels, traditional valuation models face systematic failure. Although Bitcoin maintains a fluctuating upward trend driven by structural funds, it has never been able to generate the momentum to break through important thresholds, reflecting that its alignment path with traditional macro assets is disintegrating. The market is starting to no longer apply simple linkage logic, but is gradually realizing that crypto assets need independent policy anchors and role anchors.

At the same time, significant changes are occurring in the geopolitical variables that have influenced the market since the beginning of the year. The previously heated topic of the trade war has significantly cooled down. Recent shifts by some political figures regarding the focus on the reshoring of manufacturing indicate that there will be no further escalation of conflicts in the short term. This has temporarily dampened the logic of geopolitical hedging, and the market is no longer granting a premium to the hedging properties of crypto assets, but is instead seeking new policy support and narrative momentum. This is also an important backdrop for the shift of the crypto market from structural rebound to high-level fluctuations, and even the continuous outflow of funds from some on-chain assets since mid-May.

On a deeper level, the entire global financial system is facing a systemic process of anchor reconstruction. The US dollar index is consolidating at high levels, and the interconnected relationships between gold, government bonds, and US stocks have been disrupted. Crypto assets are caught in between, lacking the endorsement of central banks like traditional safe-haven assets, and have not been fully incorporated into the risk control frameworks of mainstream financial institutions. This intermediate state, which is neither a risk nor a safe haven, leaves the market's pricing of major crypto assets in a relatively ambiguous zone. This ambiguous macro anchor further transmits to the downstream ecosystem, leading to various narratives that may erupt but are difficult to sustain. Without the support of macro incremental funds, localized prosperity on the blockchain can easily fall into the trap of rapidly igniting and then quickly extinguishing.

We are entering a de-financialization turning point dominated by macro variables. At this stage, market liquidity and trends are no longer driven by simple correlations between assets but depend on the redistribution of policy pricing power and institutional roles. If the crypto market wants to welcome the next round of systemic revaluation, it must wait for a new macro anchor - it could be the official establishment of Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve asset, the initiation of a clear interest rate reduction cycle by the Federal Reserve, or the acceptance of on-chain financial infrastructure by multiple governments worldwide. Only when these macro-level anchors are truly established will there be a comprehensive return of risk appetite and a resonant upward movement in asset prices.

Currently, what the crypto market needs to do is not to cling to the continuation of old logic, but to calmly identify the signs of new anchor points emerging. Those funds and projects that can first understand the changes in the macro structure and layout in advance for the new anchor points will hold the initiative in the next real wave of growth.

3. Policy Variables: The stablecoin bill is passed, and the state-level Bitcoin strategic reserve is implemented, triggering structural expectations.

In May 2025, the stablecoin regulation bill was officially passed, becoming one of the most institutionally influential stablecoin legislative proposals globally since the MiCA. The passage of this bill not only marks the establishment of a regulatory framework for USD stablecoins but also sends a clear signal: stablecoins are no longer a technical experiment or a gray financial tool, but have become an integral part of the sovereign financial system, serving as an organic extension of the influence of the digital dollar.

The core content of the bill focuses on three aspects: first, it establishes the licensing authority of the Federal Reserve and financial regulatory agencies over stablecoin issuers, setting capital, reserve, and transparency requirements equivalent to those of banks; second, it provides a legal foundation and standard interfaces for the interoperability of stablecoins with commercial banks and payment institutions, promoting their widespread use in retail payments, cross-border settlements, and financial interoperability; third, it establishes a technical sandbox exemption mechanism for decentralized stablecoins, preserving the innovation space for open finance within a compliant and controllable framework.

From a macro perspective, the passage of this bill has triggered a triple structural shift in expectations regarding the crypto market. First, a new paradigm of on-chain anchoring has emerged in the international extension path of the dollar system. Stablecoins, as federal checks in the digital age, not only serve the internal payments of the crypto ecosystem but may also act as part of the dollar's policy transmission mechanism, strengthening its competitive advantage in emerging markets. This also means that the U.S. is no longer merely suppressing crypto assets but is choosing to incorporate part of the channel rights into the national financial system, legitimizing stablecoins while also positioning the dollar in advance for future digital financial wars.

Secondly, the legalization of stablecoins will lead to a reassessment of the on-chain financial structure. The ecosystem of compliant stablecoins will usher in a liquidity explosion period, further activating the logic of on-chain payments, on-chain lending, and on-chain ledger reconstruction, which will enhance the demand for bridging DeFi with RWAs. Especially against the backdrop of high interest rates, high inflation, and regional currency fluctuations in the traditional financial environment, the attribute of stablecoins as tools for cross-system arbitrage will further attract emerging market users and on-chain asset management institutions. Less than two weeks after the bill was passed, some trading platforms saw their stablecoin daily trading volume reach new highs since 2023, with the circulating market value of on-chain USDC increasing by nearly 12% month-on-month, as the liquidity focus begins to shift from Tether to compliant assets.

More structurally significant is that multiple state governments have followed up the passage of the bill by announcing Bitcoin strategic reserve plans. As of late May, one state has passed a Bitcoin strategic reserve bill, and several other states have announced plans to allocate part of their fiscal surplus as Bitcoin reserve assets, citing reasons such as inflation hedging, diversification of fiscal structure, and support for the local blockchain industry. In a sense, this behavior marks the transition of Bitcoin from a grassroots consensus asset to being included in local fiscal asset tables, representing a digital reconstruction of the logic behind the reserve assets of various states during the golden age. Although the scale is still small and the mechanisms are not yet stable, the political signals released behind it are far more important than the asset volume: Bitcoin is beginning to become a government-level choice.

These policy dynamics jointly contribute to a new structural landscape: stablecoins become the on-chain dollar, Bitcoin becomes the local gold, with the former being regulated and the latter being wild, both coexisting and hedging against the traditional currency system from the perspectives of payment and reserve. This situation, in the context of geopolitical financial fragmentation and declining institutional trust in 2025, conveniently provides another safe anchoring logic. This also explains why the crypto market maintained a high level of fluctuation in mid-May despite poor macro data—because the structural turnaround at the policy level established long-term certainty support for the market.

After the stablecoin bill is passed, the market's reassessment of the U.S. Treasury yield-stablecoin yield model will also accelerate the alignment of stablecoin products towards on-chain T-Bills and on-chain money market funds. In a sense, the future digital debt structure of the U.S. Treasury may partially be managed by stablecoins. The expectation of the on-chain transformation of U.S. Treasuries is gradually becoming clearer through the institutionalization of stablecoins.

4. Market Structure: Intense Rotation in Tracks, Main Line Still to be Confirmed

In the second quarter of 2025, the crypto market presents a highly tense structural contradiction: at the macro level, policy expectations are warming, and stablecoins and Bitcoin are moving towards institutional embedding; however, at the micro structural level, there is still a lack of a truly market consensus main track. This results in an overall market performance characterized by obvious frequent rotations, weak continuity, and short-lived liquidity. In other words, while the speed of capital circulation on-chain remains, the sense of direction and certainty has yet to be reconstructed, which stands in sharp contrast to certain single-track bull market cycles in 2021 or 2023.

Firstly, from the performance of the sectors, the crypto market in May 2025 showed an extremely fragmented structure. Various tracks took turns to strengthen, with each sub-track experiencing explosive cycles lasting less than two weeks, followed by a rapid dispersal of subsequent following funds. For example, certain sectors once triggered a new round of frenzy, but due to weak community consensus and overdrawn market sentiment, the market quickly corrected from high levels; the AI track exhibited high volatility characteristics, significantly influenced by the sentiment of relevant heavyweight stocks, lacking the continuity of spontaneous narratives within the chain; while some emerging tracks, although certain, entered a period of price and value divergence as a portion of airdrop expectations had already been fulfilled.

The data on capital flows shows that this rotation phenomenon essentially reflects a structural liquidity flood rather than the initiation of a structural bull market. Since mid-May, the market capitalization of USDT has stagnated, while USDC and DAI have seen a slight recovery. The daily trading volume on on-chain DEXs has maintained a fluctuation range of $2.5-3 billion, shrinking by nearly 40% compared to the peak in March. There has been no significant influx of new capital into the market; instead, existing capital is seeking short-term trading opportunities with localized high volatility and high sentiment. In this situation, even frequent changes in tracks are unlikely to form a strong mainline trend, but rather further amplify speculative rhythms, leading to a decrease in retail participation willingness, and exacerbating the disconnection between trading heat and social heat.

On the other hand, the phenomenon of valuation stratification has intensified. The valuation premium of first-tier blue-chip projects is significant, and leading assets continue to attract large amounts of capital, while long-tail projects find themselves in an awkward situation where their fundamentals cannot be priced and expectations cannot be fulfilled. Data shows that by May 2025, the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization accounted for nearly 71% of the total market capitalization, the highest level since 2022, exhibiting characteristics similar to the concentration of traditional capital markets. In the absence of a broad market trend, the liquidity and attention in the market are focused on a few core assets, further compressing the survival space for new projects and new narratives.

At the same time, on-chain behavior is also changing. The number of active addresses on a certain public chain has stabilized at around 400,000 for months, but the overall TVL of DeFi protocols has not increased in sync, reflecting the on-chain interaction.