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September is approaching, and the financial markets are focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Most investors are hopeful, believing that a rate cut will contribute to the bull run. However, reality may not be that simple.
After the interest rate cut is implemented, the market reaction may be unexpected. Over the past few months, the market trend has largely depended on the expectations of interest rate cuts. Once this expectation is fulfilled, the market will face new uncertainties. More critically, if the interest rate cut cycle ends, interest rate hikes may follow, which would have a significant impact on the market.
What is worth being cautious about is that the current market expectations for interest rate cuts are too unanimous. It is well known that financial markets often behave unexpectedly. If the Federal Reserve Chairman chooses to maintain interest rates unchanged to demonstrate independence, it will trigger severe turmoil in the market.
However, there is a third possibility: policymakers may take unconventional measures. Even if the Federal Reserve remains inactive, the government may stimulate the economy through other means, such as implementing various fiscal policies or non-traditional monetary policies. This approach may prolong the market's upward momentum and even break traditional economic cycle patterns.
Regardless of the outcome in September, it will become an important turning point for the market. It could be the last rally of a bull run or the beginning of a new round of increases. In this time of uncertainty, investors need to stay vigilant and prepare for various possibilities. After all, what the market fears most is not change, but investors being completely unprepared for change.