What to do if there is no interest rate cut in September? The "Black Friday" alert in the encryption circle has been sounded.

As the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision becomes the "heartbeat monitor" of the global financial market, the nerves in the encryption circle are also on edge. If the expectation of a rate cut in September fails, a "domino effect" triggered by tightening liquidity may sweep the market – Bitcoin could drop below the critical support level of $112,000, Ethereum may face a wave of institutional sell-offs, and altcoins will likely fall into a disastrous situation of "blood flowing like a river."

Liquidity tightening: The "food crisis" of encryption assets

The U.S. PPI surged 3.3% year-on-year in July, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, with inflationary stickiness forcing the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts. The market's original bets on "liquidity revival" were instantly frozen, the dollar index soared, and risk assets faced collective pressure. If Bitcoin falls below the $112,000 support level, it may trigger programmed stop-loss orders, leading to a panic sell-off at $105,000. Even more dangerously, institutional ETF funds such as Grayscale continue to flow out, while miner selling pressure and whale cash-outs (such as 334 ETH profiting $140 million exiting) will exacerbate market panic.

Institution vs Retail: A Game of Survival

Retail investors are panicking and cutting losses amid the plunge, while institutions are secretly buying the dip - BitMine has spent $470 million to buy 106,000 ETH, and the demand for risk-averse investments from Latin American funds has surged by 40%. This divergence may lead the market into a "tale of two cities": Bitcoin may fluctuate widely around $115,000, while altcoins will face the catastrophic disaster of liquidity exhaustion. Even more critically, regulations such as the "GENIUS Act" remain unresolved; if policies tighten suddenly, the pace of institutional entry could be completely disrupted.

Counterattack? Three signals hide opportunities

Despite the lurking crises, there is still a possibility of market reversal: 1) Bitcoin whales have accumulated 18,000 coins in the range of $118,000 to $120,000, and this cost support may become a rebound pivot; 2) The daily Chande momentum indicator for Ethereum has reached a new high since 2021, and if it stabilizes above $4,500, it may open the channel to $6,000; 3) If the Federal Reserve signals "pausing interest rate cuts but retaining flexibility," the market may welcome a expected correction trend.

Conclusion: On September 18th, a game-changing showdown.

As the countdown points to the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, every number could become a trigger. The life-and-death game of the crypto world has just begun... (To know how institutions are planning a counterattack, follow Mai Zi for exclusive strategies) #Gate七月透明度报告发布# #BTC ETF持仓破1530亿美元# #美联储终止新型活动监管#