What does the gold–Bitcoin correlation reveal about the future path of BTC?

Bitcoin (BTC) has reached a new historical peak at 123,700 USD during the Asian trading session this morning (14/8), igniting a wave of excitement across the entire crypto market.

Many experts believe that this strong growth trend of BTC is not over yet, with one of the main drivers being the positive correlation between Bitcoin and gold.

What lies ahead for Bitcoin?

In a recent post on X, Charles Edwards – the founder of Capriole Investments – pointed out the growing gap between the price of gold and the price of Bitcoin. His analysis shows that Bitcoin tends to close this gap over time.

Edwards noticed that the current gap is similar to the period of 2020 – a time when Bitcoin subsequently entered a "remarkable" growth cycle.

The correlation chart between gold and BTC | Source: Charles Edwards/In fact, by 2021, Bitcoin even showed superiority over gold. Therefore, if history repeats itself, the largest cryptocurrency in the market may continue its upward trend, surpassing the current record peak to establish new price milestones.

Cryptocurrency investor Jelle also agrees with this view, emphasizing that gold often serves as the "leader" that drives Bitcoin prices. According to him, if this model continues to be maintained, BTC could aim for the milestone of 150,000 USD – consistent with historical trends.

Why can Bitcoin continue to rise?

Expectations for the price of Bitcoin, or even gold, to continue rising is not too far-fetched considering the current market context. Charlie Bilello – the market strategy director at Creative Planning – stated that gold and Bitcoin are the two best-performing assets in 2025.

"Gold (+29%) and Bitcoin (+25%) are currently leading the list of major assets with the highest performance as of 2025."

He emphasized that it is rare for gold and Bitcoin to both hold the top two positions in a year, making 2025 a notable exception. Additionally, in a series of posts on X, The Kobeissi Letter analyzed that both BTC and gold are benefiting from several macro factors.

Accordingly, in July 2025, total revenue from tariffs in the U.S. increased by more than 300%, reaching a record level of 29.6 billion USD. The Kobeissi Letter predicts this figure could exceed 350 billion USD annually during President Trump's term. However, the U.S. budget deficit also increased by an additional 47 billion USD (19%) in July, reaching a record 630 billion USD in government spending. Revenue from tariffs only covers about 10% of this deficit.

"Despite record customs revenue, the U.S. still spent nearly twice the tax revenue in July. If spending were cut, President Trump's trade policy could significantly help narrow the deficits. But currently, the gap is still too large to fill," Kobeissi stated.

This economic context is driving demand for gold and Bitcoin, as investors seek safe-haven assets in the face of financial instability and inflationary pressures.

"As we have said for more than 12 months, this is the best fundamental backdrop for both gold and Bitcoin."

In addition, the latest data from CME's FedWatch tool shows that the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September has soared to 95.8%.

Fed Rate Cut Probability Chart for September 2025 | Source: CME FedWatch ToolAccording to analyses, if the Fed cuts interest rates, this will be a very positive factor for the cryptocurrency market. Therefore, the gold – BTC correlation along with other supporting macro factors indicates that Bitcoin still has a lot of potential for growth. The market will continue to closely monitor how far BTC can go in the near future.

Justin