The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the bull run has just begun!

August 11, 2025

PART 01
Last week, the Fed bigwigs voiced "doves".
In the past week, the Fed's tone suddenly softened. Before and after the "employment data falsification" incident, several senior figures from the Fed came out in support of a rate cut in September, and there is hope for 3-4 rate cuts throughout the year, totaling about 1 percentage point: Michelle Bowman (Vice Chair for Supervision at the Fed) was one of the two who voted against at the July meeting, advocating for an immediate rate cut. Over the past weekend, she reiterated that the weak employment data reinforced her judgment from last year—that there should be three rate cuts this year. She believes the weakness in the labor market is evident, and an early rate cut could prevent further deterioration. Neel Kashkari (President of the Minneapolis Fed) pointed out in an interview with CNBC that the economy is clearly slowing, with poor consumption and employment indicators. He thinks "a rate cut soon might be more appropriate," implying that starting the rate cut cycle in September could be reasonable. Mary Daly (President of the San Francisco Fed) outlined her position on "the need for a rate cut soon," believing that inflation has eased after excluding tariff impacts, and if employment further deteriorates, policy adjustments should be made promptly. Christopher Waller (Fed Governor), like Bowman, voted in favor of a rate cut at the July meeting, opposing the maintenance of the current interest rates. The market reacted incredibly quickly: Polimarket showed that the probability of a rate cut in September surged to 82.8%, with a 76% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 6.8% probability of a 50 basis point cut—this shift happened over the weekend! In other words, under Trump's coercion and inducement, the Fed may indeed have yielded due to the building renovation incident.

PART 02
The crypto market is directly booming this weekend.
As soon as the news of interest rate cuts came out, the cryptocurrency market exploded over the weekend. Bitcoin surged past $120,000, setting a new high, with a nearly 9% increase over the weekend. Ethereum followed closely with an 8% rise, while Solana broke through key levels with a 6% increase. The on-chain activity skyrocketed as BNB rose by 5%. Ecological projects also joined the excitement, with some altcoins experiencing single-day increases of over 10%. It can be said that almost everything is rising, except for stablecoins!

PART 03
US stock crypto stocks: Emotion amplifier
With the price of cryptocurrencies soaring, US stock market crypto concept stocks are also not to be outdone, directly becoming an emotional lever. ETH concept stocks: BMNR up 15%, SBET up 12%, BTCS up 10%, GAME up 16%. SOL concept stocks: UPXI up 8%, DFDV up 6%. BNB concept stocks: NA up 12%, BNC up 14%. XRP concept stocks: VVPR up 16%. DOGE concept stocks: BTOG up 12%. HYPE concept stocks: SONN up 4%, HYPD up 14%. These crypto stocks can channel funds from the stock market into the crypto market, so the madness of this altcoin season is definitely worth looking forward to!

PART 04
Compared to the last bull run
In the bull run of 2021, the Fed's interest rate was only 0.125%, and money from all over the world was looking for a place to go, with risk assets soaring. And now? The interest rate is 4.375%, and the cost of funds is much higher. If a rate cut actually starts in September this year, with 3-4 cuts by the end of the year, the rate could drop to 3.375%. This is much more comfortable than now, but it's still far from the "flooding gold mountains" state of 2021. So, this wave of market activity is more of a warm-up. The real show will have to wait until liquidity fully returns.

PART 05
Risk Warning
There is still more than a month until the September interest rate meeting, and the market sentiment may fluctuate once or twice in the meantime. Although the night is long and dreams are many, everyone should first move their benches and patiently wait for the right entry opportunity~