Analysis of the Impact of the Ethereum Pectra Upgrade

Key Points

• Ethereum completed the Pectra upgrade on May 7, increasing the maximum effective balance of validators to 2048 ETH, while doubling the blob space per block.
• Over 11,000 validators have merged, the number of active validators has decreased by about 16,000, but the overall staked ETH amount remains unchanged, with the average staking amount per validator rising to about 32.4 ETH.
• The number of blobs released daily increased from about 21,000 to around 28,000, but has not yet reached the new target of 6 blobs per block.
• Layer-2 transaction volume continues to grow, with total blob fees approaching zero. Future fee increases will depend on the increased demand for blobs from Rollup.

Introduction

Ethereum successfully implemented the Pectra hard fork on May 7, bringing improvements in validator operations and staking flexibility, user experience optimization, and Layer-2 scalability support. This upgrade includes the implementation of 11 EIPs and is another important milestone following the launch of the Beacon Chain, continuing the development path of the Merge, Shapella, Dencun, and other phases.

This article focuses on analyzing the impact of Pectra's initial launch, concentrating on the effects of raising the maximum effective balance and doubling blob space on the staking mechanism and Layer-2 ecosystem, while tracking relevant key metrics on the Ethereum chain.

Staking and Validators

One of the main goals of the Pectra upgrade is to optimize the validator operation process and enhance the flexibility of participating in the PoS system. EIP-7251 increases the maximum effective staking balance for validators to 2048 Ether, which may have a profound impact on the network's economic structure. Stakers can now "top up" existing validators or merge multiple validators to more efficiently obtain compound rewards.

Maximum Effective Balance Adjustment (EIP-7251)

The validator merge process includes:

1. Update the withdrawal voucher to type 0x02, supporting merge operations.
2. Choose the source validator and the target validator
3. Submit merge request, the source validator enters the exit queue
4. Source validator exits the active set, effective balance is transferred to the target validator.

This mechanism enhances the capital efficiency of the PoS system, allowing large stakers to participate in network maintenance with fewer validator nodes, while reducing hardware and operational costs.

Since the Pectra upgrade, as of May 25, a total of 11,150 validators have completed the merge, merging a total of 359,146 Ether.

The impact of ### on validators and staking economics

Due to the impact of the merge and exits, the total number of active validators has decreased by a net of 16,344. This change may also be driven by EIP-7002, which simplifies and accelerates the validator exit process. The number of active validators is beginning to decouple from the total staked ETH, with an increasing amount of staking being concentrated among a few high-balance validators.

This centralization not only enhances the capital efficiency of stakers but also helps alleviate network load and peer-to-peer communication pressure.

Currently, the average staking amount for each validator has increased from about 32 ETH to about 32.4 ETH, but the effective staking balance of most validators still remains below 128 ETH. It is expected that as more node operators merge their stakes to enhance returns, this average will continue to rise, and the distribution structure of validator stakes will also change.

Blob Expansion and Layer-2 Development

Blob throughput doubled (EIP-7691)

Another core goal of the Pectra upgrade is to support Layer-2 scalability, achieved by doubling the throughput of blobs. EIP-7691 increases the target number of blobs per block from 3 to 6, and the upper limit from 6 to 9, significantly increasing the supply of blob space. This means that Layer-2 will have greater transaction capacity and lower data availability costs.

After the upgrade, the number of blobs uploaded daily by Rollup increased from about 21,300 to approximately 28,000 (an average of 4 blobs per block), and the blob space used rose from about 2.7 GB to around 3.4 GB. The average number of blobs per block is gradually approaching the new target value of 6, indicating that the transaction demand on Layer-2 is growing.

However, since the usage rate has not yet reached the target, blob transaction fees are currently still at a very low level. More than 40,000 blocks have not included any blobs, while about 52,000 blocks have included 6 or more blobs, indicating that there is still more room for growth.

When the number of blobs submitted per block exceeds the target value, the blob fee market will be triggered, thereby increasing the fees for blobs. Additionally, EIP-7623 combats non-optimized data storage methods by raising the cost of calldata, further encouraging Rollups to use blob space as a more economical data availability solution.

###'s impact on Layer-2

The increase in the supply of blobs directly affects the cost of Rollups. The average blob fees have further decreased, making them more predictable and almost free for major Rollup projects. The total blob fees paid on Layer-2 have dropped to around 4 gwei. Lower costs mean that Layer-2 has a higher profit margin while also being able to handle more transactions on its chain.

The throughput of some Layer-2 solutions has increased, with the number of transactions surging from 8 million to 14 million. This trend is similar to the situation when the Dencun upgrade first introduced blobs in March 2024. If Ethereum hopes to derive more value from blob fees, Rollups need to gradually increase their usage of blobs and push towards new block limits.

Conclusion

Pectra is an important step for Ethereum towards the goal of a globally universal settlement layer. This upgrade introduces greater flexibility and efficiency to the staking ecosystem, making it more forward-looking and better suited for institutional participation, while laying a crucial foundation for scalability and a better user experience.

Although early data shows that the integration of validators is ongoing and the blob usage rate of Layer-2 is also rising, many of the expected economic changes and scalability effects still require time to gradually manifest. Pectra is quietly paving the way for the next phase of Ethereum's adoption and growth.