Bitcoin Halving: Miner income plummeted by 51%, and the number of large holding Addresses increased by 1.3%.

Bitcoin Halving Market Dynamics: Miner income significantly decreases, large holders increase

Bitcoin completed its 4th Halving on April 20, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC. This Halving had a direct impact on mining, causing a sharp decline in Miner income in the short term. At the same time, the Halving also affected Bitcoin's inflation rate, and the market generally expects that the increase in scarcity will drive up the coin price. However, since the Halving, Bitcoin has remained in a high-level consolidation phase, with a slight price drop of 3.87%, putting pressure on Miners and causing some short-term investors to face losses.

Each Halving is essentially a process of market supply and demand rebalancing. During this process, we need to pay attention to market capital flows, Miner pressure, and Bitcoin demand conditions. By analyzing current market data, mining data, and demand-side data, we find that:

  1. Since March, the percentage of Bitcoin loss-making chips has risen from 1.28% to 15.18%. After the Halving, the average SOPR index for short-term investors is 0.99972, indicating that many short-term investors may have incurred losses due to Halving expectations.

  2. After the Halving, the on-chain token circulation rate decreased by 23%, with more chips in the accumulation stage. Since the beginning of this year, the number of chips held for 1-3 months, 3-6 months, and 3-5 years has significantly increased. The number of addresses with balances between 100-1000 BTC and 1000-10000 BTC has increased by more than 1.3%.

  3. After the Halving, miners face significant revenue pressure. Based on the current coin price and high electricity costs, the shutdown price has reached $55,000, a substantial increase from last year's lowest shutdown price of $14,300.

  4. The current daily mining revenue is approximately $26.4871 million, a decrease of 51.63% compared to the average daily revenue of $54.7623 million before the Halving. The current daily transaction fees are about $2.28 million, a decrease of 34% from the average fees before the Halving.

  5. Assuming that the transaction fee income remains unchanged, to reach the daily average income level before the Halving, the coin price needs to reach $94,489.82, an increase of 51.63% compared to the current coin price.

  6. If the coin price remains unchanged, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the number of transactions needs to increase to 1,673,700, an increase of 202.49% compared to the average daily value after the Halving; or the average transaction fee must reach 0.00080317 BTC, an increase of 206.08% compared to the average daily value after the Halving.

  7. The strong demand during the initial launch of Runes brought huge profits to miners, contributing 881 BTC in fees on the first day.

After the halving, the proportion of loss-making chips rose to 15%, and the number of large holding coin addresses significantly increased.

The market generally expects that the price of Bitcoin will rise significantly after the Halving. Historical data shows that in the year following the last three Halvings, the price of Bitcoin increased by 8069.11%, 256.85%, and 478.10%, respectively.

However, in the short term, the impact of the Halving on prices is relatively slow. In the 17 days following the last three Halvings, the price increase of Bitcoin was 9.73%, 0.97%, and 6.98%, respectively. Since this Halving, Bitcoin has remained in a high-level consolidation state, with the current price (17 days later) around $62,400, a decrease of approximately 3.87%.

The price of coins falling short of expectations has led to a significant increase in the proportion of loss-making chips in the market. Since the Halving, the price of Bitcoin has fluctuated between $64,900 and $62,400, with the proportion of loss-making chips rising from 10.95% to 15.18%. In fact, this situation started before the Halving. Since March, the price of Bitcoin has consolidated above $62,500, while the proportion of loss-making chips has continuously increased from 1.28%, indicating that many short-term investors may have incurred losses due to expectations of the Halving.

The SOPR index for short-term investors also confirms this indirectly. An index value of less than 1 indicates that investors who hold coins for more than 1 hour but less than 155 days are overall at a loss. Currently, the index is at 1.0022, very close to 1, and the average after Halving is 0.99972, indicating that short-term investors are in an overall loss state recently.

BTC Halving后动态平衡:Miner收入骤降,关机价来到5.5万美元,大额持币者快速增长

While prices are sluggish, the circulation speed of on-chain chips has significantly slowed down. The current circulation rate (7-day average) is 0.01044, a decrease of nearly 23% compared to the Halving day and a decrease of nearly 33% compared to the beginning of the year, showing a significant decline.

The rapid decline in circulation speed may indicate that more chips are in the accumulation process. From a time period perspective, since the beginning of this year, the number of coins held for 1-3 months, 3-6 months, and 3-5 years has significantly increased. In particular, the proportion of coins held for 1-3 months has increased by 7.14 percentage points this year, and by 2.44 percentage points after the Halving, showing a trend of holding periods shifting from short-term to medium- and long-term accumulation.

BTC Halving后的动态平衡:Miner收入骤降,关机价来到5.5万美元,大额持币者快速增长

Looking at addresses with different balances, since the beginning of this year, the number of addresses marked as Entities with balances between 100-1000 BTC and 1000-10000 BTC has significantly increased, growing by 1.35% and 1.39% respectively, and this phenomenon persists after the Halving. Among all addresses, the number of addresses with balances between 1000-10000 BTC increased by 1.07%. This data indicates that the number of large holders is growing, and chips are accumulating.

BTC Halving后的动态平衡:Miner收入骤降,关机价来到5.5万美元,大额持币者快速增长

After the Halving, the hashrate dropped by over 7%, and daily mining revenue fell to $26.49 million

After the Bitcoin Halving, the total network hash rate (average hash rate over the last 7 days) has significantly decreased. The current hash rate is 582.2 EH/s, down 7.43% from the day of the Halving. The drop in hash rate exceeds the drop in coin price, which may indicate that Miners have shut down some mining machines to maintain profits.

From the shutdown prices of different miners, current miners are facing significant revenue pressure. Based on a coin price of 62315.29 USD, if the miner is located in a low electricity cost area (0.07 USD/kWh), there are 31 models of miners whose shutdown prices are lower than the current coin price and can still be profitable. Among them, the Antminer S21Pro has the lowest shutdown price at 32,200 USD, with a daily net revenue of 5.52 USD. Last August, the lowest shutdown price was still at 14,300 USD.

If the mining machine is located in a high electricity cost area ($0.12/kWh), there are only 3 models of mining machines that can still be profitable: Antminer S21 Pro, Antminer S21 Hyd, and Antminer S21, with a shutdown price above $55,200.

If the current market conditions do not improve, the cost of electricity will become a key factor in determining the survival of miners. If the market improves, to what extent does it need to improve to alleviate the pressure on miners?

Assuming electricity prices remain low, when the coin price rises to $80,000, the number of profitable miners will reach 45 types, with the lowest shutdown price still being the Antminer S21Pro, and the highest daily net profit being the Shina M63S(390T), reaching $12.30. When the coin price rises to $100,000, the number of profitable miners will reach 66 types, with the lowest shutdown price being the Antminer S21Pro, and the highest daily net profit being the Shina M63S(390T), reaching $18.41. As the coin price rises, the types of miners available for miners to choose from will significantly increase, and they can diversify their allocations.

BTC Halving动态平衡:Miner收入骤降,关机价来到5.5万美元,大额持币者快速增长

After the Halving, mining revenue has drastically decreased. The current total daily mining revenue is approximately $26.4871 million, down 51.63% compared to the average daily revenue of $54.7623 million before this year's Halving. It is worth noting that on the day of the Halving, due to the launch of the Runes protocol, the mining revenue was about $107 million, which is 95.06% higher than the average daily revenue before this year's Halving.

BTC Halving Dynamic Balance: Miner income plummets, shutdown price reaches $55,000, large holders rapidly increase

The strong rise in on-chain demand can compensate for the losses caused by the Halving to Miners through transaction fees. On the day Runes was launched, the transaction fees reached $80.58 million, accounting for 75% of total revenue. However, as the popularity of Runes cooled and trading volume decreased, the current daily transaction fees are about $2.28 million, a 34% decrease compared to the average daily transaction fees before this year's Halving.

BTC Halving后的动态平衡:Mining收入骤降,关机价来到5.5万美元,大额持币者快速增长

Miner mining income (USD) = (block reward + transaction fees) * coin price, so the reduction in miner income brought about by Halving can be compensated from two aspects: first, assuming that transaction fee income remains unchanged, the coin price needs to rise significantly; second, assuming that the coin price remains basically stable, the fee income needs to rise significantly and continuously. This is a static simple analysis, aimed at illustrating the potential impact of Bitcoin Halving on coin price and transactions.

Based on the average daily mining income of $54.76 million before the Halving, the average daily block quantity is 139 blocks after the Halving, the average block reward is 434.23 BTC after the Halving, the average transaction fee per transaction is 0.0002624 BTC after the Halving, and the average daily total number of transactions is 553328.19 times calculated:

If we assume that the transaction fee income remains unchanged, the Miner needs the coin price to reach $94,489.82 to achieve the average daily income level before the Halving, which is an increase of 51.63% compared to the current coin price.

If we assume that the coin price and transaction fees remain unchanged, to reach the average daily income level before the Halving, the number of transactions needs to increase to 1,673,700, an increase of 202.49% compared to the average daily value after the Halving.

Assuming that the coin price and the number of transactions remain unchanged, to achieve the average daily income level before the Halving, the average transaction fee needs to reach 0.00080317 BTC, which is an increase of 206.08% compared to the average value after the Halving.

BTC Halving后的动态平衡:Miner收入骤降,关机价来到5.5万美元,大额持币者快速增长

Bitcoin demand side remains weak, TVL and multiple data of Runes decline

Estimating the scale of the impact on mining after the Halving is very important, as unprofitable Miners will threaten the underlying security of the blockchain. Apart from the coin price, transaction fees and the number of transactions directly reflect demand. So, what is the current demand situation for Bitcoin?

From the perspective of Runes, the number of related transactions has decreased from the initial 463,600 to the current 79,400, and the transaction fees have dropped from 881 BTC to the current 4 BTC. From the daily mining revenue, it can be seen that the strong demand at the initial launch of Runes was able to generate huge profits for miners. The current question is how to maintain the sustainability of demand for Runes and other Bitcoin projects.

BTC Halving后的动态平衡:挖矿收入骤降,关机价来到5.5万美元,大额持币者快速增长

In addition, the DeFi imagination brought by Bitcoin's Layer 2 and Runes may also stimulate more usage demand. Currently, the TVL on the Bitcoin chain has reached $1.208 billion, up 296% since the beginning of the year, and has remained stable after the Halving. Among them, in addition to the Lightning Network, the recently launched AINN Layer 2 has performed well, with a current TVL of $590 million, becoming a major application in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Additionally, applications like BiFi, Maya Protocol, and BoringDAO have also achieved rapid TVL growth this year.

BTC Halving Dynamic Balance: Mining Income Plummets, Shutdown Price Reaches $55,000, Large Holders Rapidly Increase

![BTC Halving后动态平衡:挖矿收入骤降,关

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GateUser-75ee51e7vip
· 07-17 15:21
Whale is accumulating crazily.
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WalletInspectorvip
· 07-16 08:12
Fall what fall, stock it up, win steadily.
View OriginalReply0
MeaninglessGweivip
· 07-14 20:20
After clapping and buying the coin, just wait for the explosion.
View OriginalReply0
NFTArchaeologisvip
· 07-14 20:13
The path of digital heritage, like the long river of spring and autumn, Halving is just another cycle.
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GhostChainLoyalistvip
· 07-14 20:11
Large Investors took the opportunity to stock up again.
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GateUser-4745f9cevip
· 07-14 20:10
The ones eating from the iron plate have started Coin Hoarding again.
View OriginalReply0
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