Ethereum market upheaval: Passion and Fluctuation dance together

Event Review 📈

Recently, Ethereum (ETH) experienced intense price fluctuations within just one hour, with market sentiment running high. As early as around 05:00, the ETH price hovered around the range of approximately $2816 to $2817, and then, driven by multiple positive factors, it quickly surged to a peak of $3010. During this period, there were some instances of liquidation and institutional funds following suit. Although there was a slight pullback to $2969.53 at 06:45, the overall bullish trend remained solid, and the market once again proved the strong resilience of super coins in the current liquidity environment.

Timeline ⌚

05:00 – ETH market starts, with prices around $2816-2817, and the market begins to experience a rapid rebound.

05:18 – ETH breaks through the $2850 threshold, bullish momentum begins to show.

05:24 – Further strengthening, the price reached approximately $2911.94, confirming the technical breakout.

05:40 – The price surged to nearly $2950, with active buying, and the technical chart shows a clear upward trend.

05:50 – Rose to $3010 in a short time, with some liquidation events boosting market sentiment.

06:45 – The market adjusted and pulled back, with the ETH price dipping to about $2969.53, showing signs of local profit-taking.

Reason analysis 🔍

The recent volatility of ETH is mainly due to two factors:

Expectations of macroeconomic policy and changes in the liquidity environment

Recent measures taken by the U.S. political and regulatory sectors, along with calls from heavyweight figures like Trump for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, have intensified market expectations for future liquidity improvement.

The loose policy background and regulatory adjustments have led both institutions and retail investors to increase their allocation to risk assets, thereby driving the overall rise of crypto assets.

Whale fund movements and the effect of technological breakthroughs

Multiple large BTC and ETH transfers and continuous inflow of ETF funds, along with the involvement of whale funds, have provided clear buying signals to the market, which in turn catalyzed the breakout of the market through technical breakthroughs.

The technical chart displays that the breakthrough at key resistance levels and some liquidation events have further amplified market volatility, attracting a large amount of follow-up funds to enter the market.

Technical Analysis 📊

Technical analysis based on the 45-minute K-line data of the Binance ETH/USDT perpetual contract shows:

Trend Indicator

The price is currently operating along the upper Bollinger Band, positioned in a relatively strong range;

MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50 are all in a bullish arrangement, and EMA5/10/20/50/120 show a perfect bullish sequence, with both short-term and long-term trends pointing upwards.

Momentum Indicator

The EMA20 slope is steep (approximately 1.67%), indicating strong short-term upward momentum;

The MACD histogram shows continuous growth, and the upward momentum is further strengthened.

The RSI indicator is currently in the overbought zone, suggesting that a correction may occur in the short term.

Trading Volume Situation

The current trading volume is showing relatively low levels, at only 42.89% of the average, but the 10-day and 20-day averages are showing a significant increase, indicating that recent trading activity and capital inflow have strengthened.

K-line pattern

The appearance of a bullish engulfing pattern and TD price reversal signal both indicate that the bulls still hold a dominant advantage in the short term, while also suggesting that the market may experience a brief pullback before continuing to advance.

Market Outlook 💡

Despite the significant fluctuations of ETH in a short period, the technical charts and the inflow of institutional funds indicate that the market is overall in a bullish dominant trend. It is expected that:

Short-term adjustment risk: Due to the RSI being overbought and some profit-taking situations, investors need to be cautious of the possibility of short-term corrections. However, this adjustment may provide a better entry opportunity for subsequent more robust advances.

Medium to long-term trend: Against the backdrop of macroeconomic easing policies and continuous intervention of large whale funds, Ethereum is expected to continue to rise in the medium to long term. The technical indicators still show an upward trend, with key moving averages providing solid support. If the current range can be maintained in the future, ETH will maintain a strong upward pattern.

Overall, the drastic fluctuations in this market reflect the strong expectations for favorable policies and improved liquidity, and also demonstrate the positive signals brought by institutional capital intervention following technical breakthroughs. Investors should pay attention to market sentiment while ensuring risk control, and wait for clearer market trends before making further arrangements.